The dynamics of commodity return comovements

Prokopczuk, M., Wese Simen, C. and Wichmann, R. (2021) The dynamics of commodity return comovements. Journal of Futures Markets, 41 (10). pp. 1597-1617. ISSN 0270-7314 doi: 10.1002/fut.22222

Abstract/Summary

We compare factor models with respect to their ability to explain commodity futures return comovements. A simple one-factor model based on the first principal component extracted from a panel of commodity returns outperforms a macroeconomic model, and explains most of the realized comovements. We find that intersectoral correlations display more time variations than intrasectoral correlations. Dissecting the evidence further, we find that comovements are driven by the variation of the factor as opposed to exposure to it. Our results cast doubt on the persistence of the effects of financialization and emphasize the importance of the dynamics of the factor variance.