East Asian aerosol cleanup has likely contributed to the recent acceleration in global warming

Samset, B. H., Wilcox, L. J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5691-1493, Allen, R. J., Stjern, C. W., Lund, M. T., Ahmadi, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2754-4820, Ekman, A., Elling, M. T., Fraser-Leach, L., Griffiths, P., Keeble, J., Koshiro, T., Kushner, P., Lewinschal, A., Makkonen, R., Merikanto, J., Nabat, P., Narazenko, L., O’Donnell, D., Oshima, N., Rumbold, S. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8138-4541, Takemura, T., Tsigaridis, K. and Westervelt, D. M. (2025) East Asian aerosol cleanup has likely contributed to the recent acceleration in global warming. Communications Earth and Environment, 6 (1). 543. ISSN 2662-4435 doi: 10.1038/s43247-025-02527-3

Abstract/Summary

Global surface warming has accelerated since around 2010, relative to the preceding half century 1–3 . This has coincided with East Asian efforts to reduce air pollution through restricted atmospheric aerosol and precursor emissions 4,5 . A direct link between the two has, however, not yet been established. Here we show, using a large set of simulations from eight Earth System Models, how a time-evolving 75% reduction in East Asian sulfate emissions partially unmasks greenhouse gas-driven warming and influences the spatial pattern of surface temperature change. We find a rapidly evolving global, annual mean warming of 0.07 ± 0.05 °C, sufficient to be a main driver of the uptick in global warming rate since 2010. We also find North-Pacific warming and a top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance that are qualitatively consistent with recent observations. East Asian aerosol cleanup is thus likely a key contributor to recent global warming acceleration and to Pacific warming trends.