The signal-to-noise paradox in climate forecasts: revisiting our understanding and identifying future priorities

Weisheimer, A., Baker, L. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0738-9488, Bröcker, J., Garfinkel, C. I., Hardiman, S. C., Hodson, D. L. R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7159-6700, Palmer, T. N., Robson, J. I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3467-018X, Scaife, A. A., Screen, J. A., Shepherd, T. G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6631-9968, Smith, D. N. and Sutton, R. T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-8583 (2024) The signal-to-noise paradox in climate forecasts: revisiting our understanding and identifying future priorities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 105 (3). E651-E659. ISSN 0003-0007 doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0019.1

Abstract/Summary

Nearly 40 participants from universities (Oxford, Reading, Exeter, Leeds, Lincoln), the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) and operational forecasting centers (Met Office, ECMWF) in the UK as well as from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem and NCAR in Boulder gathered - primarily in person - to discuss our current understanding of the so-called signal-to-noise paradox in climate forecasts and develop ideas to resolve it.