Rare event simulation of extreme European winter rainfall in an intermediate complexity climate model

Wouters, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5418-7657, Schiemann, R. K. H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3095-9856 and Shaffrey, L. C. (2023) Rare event simulation of extreme European winter rainfall in an intermediate complexity climate model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 15 (4). e2022MS003537. ISSN 1942-2466 doi: 10.1029/2022MS003537

Abstract/Summary

We test the application of a rare event simulation algorithm to accelerate the sampling of extreme winter rainfall over Europe in a climate model. The genealogical particle analysis algorithm, an ensemble method that interrupts the simulation at intermediate times to clone realizations in which an extreme event is developing, is applied to the intermediate complexity general circulation model PlaSim. We show that the algorithm strongly reduces the numerical effort required to estimate probabilities of extremes, demonstrating the potential of rare event simulation of seasonal precipitation extremes.

Item Type	Article
URI	https://reading-pure-test.eprints-hosting.org/id/eprint/111397
Identification Number/DOI	10.1029/2022MS003537
Refereed	Yes
Divisions	Central Services Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Mathematics and Statistics Science > School of Mathematical, Physical and Computational Sciences > Department of Meteorology
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