A mathematical model for the dynamics of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt with vertical transmission and inflorescence infection

Nakakawa, J., Mugisha, J. Y. T., Shaw, M. and Karamura, E. (2016) A mathematical model for the dynamics of Banana Xanthomonas Wilt with vertical transmission and inflorescence infection. Journal of Biological Systems, 24 (1). pp. 147-165. ISSN 0218-3390 doi: 10.1142/S021833901650008X

Abstract/Summary

A mathematical model for Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) spread by insect is presented. The model incorporates inflorescence infection and vertical transmission from the mother corm to attached suckers, but not tool-based transmission by humans. Expressions for the basic reproduction number R0 are obtained and it is verified that disease persists, at a unique endemic level, when R0 > 1. From sensitivity analysis, inflorescence infection rate and roguing rate were the parameters with most influence on disease persistence and equilibrium level. Vertical transmission parameters had less effect on persistence threshold values. Parameters were approximately estimated from field data. The model indicates that single stem removal is a feasible approach to eradication if spread is mainly via inflorescence infection. This requires continuous surveillance and debudding such that a 50% reduction in inflorescence infection and 2–3 weeks interval of surveillance would eventually lead to full recovery of banana plantations and hence improved production.