Contrasting the synoptic drivers of the UK heatwaves of 1976, 2003, 2018 and 2022

Sladić, N., Allan, R. P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0264-9447, Trent, T., Povey, A. C. and Suri, D. (2026) Contrasting the synoptic drivers of the UK heatwaves of 1976, 2003, 2018 and 2022. Weather. ISSN 0043-1656 doi: 10.1002/wea.70075

Abstract/Summary

UK summer heatwaves are dictated by the polar jet stream position and sea surface temperature (SST) variability, affecting the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) index. The SNAO can determine and influence the Central England Precipitation (CEP) and Central England Temperature (CET). A strong and significant negative correlation ( r = −0.63) is found between the SNAO and CEP, but a weaker correlation for the CET. Summers with highly positive SNAO (i.e. 1976 and 2018) are among the driest and warmest on record. In this study, we highlight the roles of large‐scale atmospheric circulations and use of Met Office‐defined weather regimes in understanding UK heatwave characteristics.