Self-fulfilling prophecies in the transition to clean technology

Smulders, S. and Zhou, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9147-2980 (2026) Self-fulfilling prophecies in the transition to clean technology. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 18 (3). pp. 304-342. ISSN 1945-7707 doi: 10.1257/mac.20220316

Abstract/Summary

Technological lock-in has been a standard explanation for the slow take-off of clean innovation, but is hard to reconcile with forward-looking investors who anticipate the eventual switch to clean technologies. We provide an alternative explanation: strategic investment complementarities shape innovation and self-fulfilling prophecies can lead to delayed low-carbon transition. We analyze a standard directed technical change model with clean and dirty inputs. We find that when the two are good substitutes, two stable steady states can co-exist, each allowing multiple transitional paths. Optimal low-carbon transition requires a Pigouvian tax rule combined with a coordination device; commitment to a Pigouvian tax trajectory cannot solve a coordination failure.